Probably Football

Matches

Superettan (Sweden)

Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK

  1. Landskrona BoIS54%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Orebro SK21%

1.84 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS

1.04 expected goals for Orebro SK

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Landskrona BoIS has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Orebro SK win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Orebro SK attack, which scores 26% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Orebro SK defence, which lets in 17% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Landskrona BoIS

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Landskrona BoIS attack+5%
  3. Orebro SK defence+17%

Expected goals1.84

Orebro SK

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Orebro SK attack−26%
  2. Landskrona BoIS defence+3%

Expected goals1.04

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.1 for Landskrona BoIS and 4.4 for Orebro SK

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Landskrona BoIS and 2.1 for Orebro SK

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

24.6 expected

15.3 for Landskrona BoIS and 9.2 for Orebro SK

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

25.9 expected

16.1 for Landskrona BoIS and 9.8 for Orebro SK

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.