Probably Football

Matches

Superettan (Sweden)

Falkenbergs FF vs Sandviken

  1. Falkenbergs FF47%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Sandviken27%

1.79 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF

1.32 expected goals for Sandviken

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Falkenbergs FF has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Sandviken win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Falkenbergs FF attack, which scores 12% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Falkenbergs FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Falkenbergs FF attack+12%
  3. Sandviken defence+6%

Expected goals1.79

Sandviken

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sandviken attack−5%
  2. Falkenbergs FF defence+2%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.