Egersund vs Strommen
- Egersund33%
- Draw24%
- Strommen43%
1.63 expected goals for Egersund
1.98 expected goals for Strommen
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Strommen has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Egersund win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Egersund defence, which lets in 44% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Strommen defence, which lets in 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 64%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Egersund
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Egersund attack−14%
- Strommen defence+25%
Expected goals1.63
Strommen
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Strommen attack+1%
- Egersund defence+44%
Expected goals1.98
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Over 3.5 goals49%
- Over 4.5 goals29%
- Both teams score64%
- Egersund or draw57%
- Draw or Strommen67%
- No draw76%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.