Probably Football

Matches

Damallsvenskan (Sweden)

Djurgården W vs Häcken W

  1. Djurgården W5%
  2. Draw7%
  3. Häcken W88%

0.68 expected goals for Djurgården W

3.36 expected goals for Häcken W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Häcken W the clear favourite: 88% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Häcken W attack, which scores 171% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Häcken W defence, which lets in 62% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 71% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Djurgården W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Djurgården W attack+17%
  3. Häcken W defence−62%

Expected goals0.68

Häcken W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Häcken W attack+171%
  2. Djurgården W defence−9%

Expected goals3.36

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals71%
  4. Over 3.5 goals57%
  5. Over 4.5 goals38%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.