Probably Football

Matches

Damallsvenskan (Sweden)

Malmö FF W vs Norrköping W

  1. Malmö FF W73%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Norrköping W11%

2.20 expected goals for Malmö FF W

0.70 expected goals for Norrköping W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Malmö FF W the clear favourite: 73% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Malmö FF W defence, which lets in 45% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Malmö FF W attack, which scores 64% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Malmö FF W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Malmö FF W attack+64%
  3. Norrköping W defence−11%

Expected goals2.20

Norrköping W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Norrköping W attack−6%
  2. Malmö FF W defence−45%

Expected goals0.70

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.