Probably Football

Matches

Damallsvenskan (Sweden)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Djurgården W vs Vittsjö W

  1. Djurgården W41%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Vittsjö W37%

1.47 expected goals for Djurgården W

1.32 expected goals for Vittsjö W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Vittsjö W defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Djurgården W attack, which scores 15% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Djurgården W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Djurgården W attack+15%
  3. Vittsjö W defence−15%

Expected goals1.47

Vittsjö W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Vittsjö W attack+2%
  2. Djurgården W defence−5%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.