Probably Football

Matches

Eliteserien (Norway)

Valerenga vs Tromso

  1. Valerenga39%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Tromso38%

1.82 expected goals for Valerenga

1.87 expected goals for Tromso

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Valerenga attack, which scores 59% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Tromso attack, which scores 55% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 65%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Valerenga

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Valerenga attack+59%
  3. Tromso defence−24%

Expected goals1.82

Tromso

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tromso attack+55%
  2. Valerenga defence−11%

Expected goals1.87

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals50%
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.8 for Valerenga and 4.7 for Tromso

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Valerenga and 2.4 for Tromso

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

28.1 expected

15.8 for Valerenga and 12.2 for Tromso

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.8 for Valerenga and 11.6 for Tromso

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.