Start vs Lillestrom
- Start26%
- Draw22%
- Lillestrom52%
1.21 expected goals for Start
2.03 expected goals for Lillestrom
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Lillestrom has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Start win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lillestrom attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Lillestrom defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Start
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Start attack+6%
- Lillestrom defence−25%
Expected goals1.21
Lillestrom
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Lillestrom attack+39%
- Start defence+8%
Expected goals2.03
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Over 3.5 goals41%
- Over 4.5 goals23%
- Both teams score58%
- Start or draw48%
- Draw or Lillestrom74%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
5.7 for Start and 4.4 for Lillestrom
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
3.6 expected
1.5 for Start and 2.2 for Lillestrom
- Over 3.5 cards49%
- Over 4.5 cards30%
- Over 5.5 cards16%
Shots
32.9 expected
18.9 for Start and 14.0 for Lillestrom
- Over 20.5 shots94%
- Over 22.5 shots90%
- Over 24.5 shots84%
Fouls
21.4 expected
10.9 for Start and 10.4 for Lillestrom
- Over 20.5 fouls55%
- Over 22.5 fouls39%
- Over 24.5 fouls25%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.