Probably Football

Matches

Eliteserien (Norway)

Brann vs Molde

  1. Brann31%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Molde49%

1.84 expected goals for Brann

2.46 expected goals for Molde

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Molde has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a Brann win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Molde attack, which scores 129% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Brann attack, which scores 57% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 71% chance, and both teams scoring, 71%. And about 11.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Brann

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Brann attack+57%
  3. Molde defence−22%

Expected goals1.84

Molde

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Molde attack+129%
  2. Brann defence−21%

Expected goals2.46

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals71%
  4. Over 3.5 goals62%
  5. Over 4.5 goals43%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.0 expected

6.6 for Brann and 4.3 for Molde

  1. Over 8.5 corners70%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners51%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Brann and 2.3 for Molde

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

30.5 expected

15.7 for Brann and 14.9 for Molde

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots77%

Fouls

22.8 expected

11.1 for Brann and 11.7 for Molde

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.