Aalesund vs Sandefjord
- Aalesund38%
- Draw25%
- Sandefjord37%
1.47 expected goals for Aalesund
1.54 expected goals for Sandefjord
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sandefjord defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Aalesund attack, which scores 55% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Aalesund
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Aalesund attack+55%
- Sandefjord defence−37%
Expected goals1.47
Sandefjord
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Sandefjord attack+9%
- Aalesund defence+4%
Expected goals1.54
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Over 3.5 goals35%
- Over 4.5 goals19%
- Both teams score58%
- Aalesund or draw63%
- Draw or Sandefjord62%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.5 expected
6.0 for Aalesund and 4.5 for Sandefjord
- Over 8.5 corners66%
- Over 9.5 corners56%
- Over 10.5 corners47%
Cards
4.3 expected
1.9 for Aalesund and 2.4 for Sandefjord
- Over 3.5 cards63%
- Over 4.5 cards43%
- Over 5.5 cards27%
Shots
31.8 expected
18.7 for Aalesund and 13.1 for Sandefjord
- Over 20.5 shots93%
- Over 22.5 shots88%
- Over 24.5 shots81%
Fouls
25.6 expected
13.0 for Aalesund and 12.7 for Sandefjord
- Over 20.5 fouls82%
- Over 22.5 fouls70%
- Over 24.5 fouls56%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.