Probably Football

Matches

Eliteserien (Norway)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Viking3-1Tromso

The model's most likely result happened: a Viking win (73%).

Viking vs Tromso

  1. Viking73%
  2. Draw14%
  3. Tromso13%

2.91 expected goals for Viking

1.25 expected goals for Tromso

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Viking the clear favourite: 73% to win. It expects 4.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 71% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 10.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals92%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals71%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals60%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals40%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

5.5 for Viking and 5.1 for Tromso

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Viking and 2.3 for Tromso

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

28.9 expected

16.0 for Viking and 12.8 for Tromso

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

23.0 expected

11.8 for Viking and 11.2 for Tromso

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.