Probably Football

Matches

Eliteserien (Norway)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Start1-0Sandefjord

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Sandefjord win (52%).

Start vs Sandefjord

  1. Start24%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Sandefjord52%

1.01 expected goals for Start

1.81 expected goals for Sandefjord

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Sandefjord has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Start win at 24%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.8 for Start and 4.5 for Sandefjord

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.6 for Start and 2.6 for Sandefjord

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

32.2 expected

18.7 for Start and 13.4 for Sandefjord

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots89%
  3. Over 24.5 shots82%

Fouls

25.2 expected

12.4 for Start and 12.8 for Sandefjord

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.