Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund

Sarpsborg 08 FF45%
Draw23%
Aalesund32%

1.95 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.68 expected goals for Aalesund

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Sarpsborg 08 FF has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Aalesund win at 32%. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 64%. And about 11.2 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
Over 1.5 goals88%It happened
Over 2.5 goals66%It happened
Over 3.5 goals49%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals30%It did not happen

Both teams score64%
Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw68%
Draw or Aalesund55%
No draw77%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.2 expected

6.5 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 4.7 for Aalesund

Over 8.5 corners72%
Over 9.5 corners63%
Over 10.5 corners53%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.4 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2.4 for Aalesund

Over 3.5 cards52%
Over 4.5 cards33%
Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

30.2 expected

16.9 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 13.3 for Aalesund

Over 20.5 shots90%
Over 22.5 shots84%
Over 24.5 shots76%

Fouls

23.6 expected

11.0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 12.6 for Aalesund

Over 20.5 fouls71%
Over 22.5 fouls57%
Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.