Probably Football

Matches

Eliteserien (Norway)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Lillestrom3-2Brann

The model gave this result 37%. Its most likely result was a Brann win (38%).

Lillestrom vs Brann

  1. Lillestrom37%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Brann38%

1.49 expected goals for Lillestrom

1.56 expected goals for Brann

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 11.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.1 expected

5.5 for Lillestrom and 5.6 for Brann

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners62%
  3. Over 10.5 corners52%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.3 for Lillestrom and 2.2 for Brann

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

31.5 expected

15.5 for Lillestrom and 16.0 for Brann

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

23.2 expected

11.4 for Lillestrom and 11.8 for Brann

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls39%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.