Probably Football

Matches

Eliteserien (Norway)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Ham-Kam0-3Rosenborg

The model's most likely result happened: a Rosenborg win (62%).

Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg

  1. Ham-Kam21%
  2. Draw17%
  3. Rosenborg62%

1.27 expected goals for Ham-Kam

2.62 expected goals for Rosenborg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Rosenborg the clear favourite: 62% to win. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals68%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals55%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals35%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.2 for Ham-Kam and 4.4 for Rosenborg

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.5 for Ham-Kam and 1.8 for Rosenborg

  1. Over 3.5 cards41%
  2. Over 4.5 cards23%
  3. Over 5.5 cards11%

Shots

28.8 expected

13.1 for Ham-Kam and 15.7 for Rosenborg

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

23.8 expected

11.5 for Ham-Kam and 12.3 for Rosenborg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.