Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna

  1. Vasteras SK FK44%
  2. Draw24%
  3. IF Brommapojkarna32%

1.70 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK

1.32 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Vasteras SK FK has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a IF Brommapojkarna win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Vasteras SK FK defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the IF Brommapojkarna attack, which scores 35% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Vasteras SK FK

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Vasteras SK FK attack+33%
  3. IF Brommapojkarna defence−15%

Expected goals1.70

IF Brommapojkarna

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. IF Brommapojkarna attack+35%
  2. Vasteras SK FK defence−28%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.9 for Vasteras SK FK and 4.0 for IF Brommapojkarna

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.3 for Vasteras SK FK and 2.2 for IF Brommapojkarna

  1. Over 3.5 cards45%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

27.6 expected

17.3 for Vasteras SK FK and 10.3 for IF Brommapojkarna

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

23.8 expected

11.8 for Vasteras SK FK and 12.0 for IF Brommapojkarna

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.