Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

Sirius vs Halmstad

  1. Sirius69%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Halmstad11%

2.27 expected goals for Sirius

0.76 expected goals for Halmstad

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Sirius the clear favourite: 69% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sirius attack, which scores 61% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Halmstad attack, which scores 30% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 11.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sirius

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sirius attack+61%
  3. Halmstad defence−6%

Expected goals2.27

Halmstad

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Halmstad attack−30%
  2. Sirius defence−21%

Expected goals0.76

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.3 expected

6.9 for Sirius and 4.5 for Halmstad

  1. Over 8.5 corners73%
  2. Over 9.5 corners64%
  3. Over 10.5 corners54%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.2 for Sirius and 2.1 for Halmstad

  1. Over 3.5 cards42%
  2. Over 4.5 cards24%
  3. Over 5.5 cards12%

Shots

28.1 expected

18.5 for Sirius and 9.6 for Halmstad

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

20.1 expected

9.6 for Sirius and 10.6 for Halmstad

  1. Over 20.5 fouls45%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls30%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls18%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.