Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF

  1. Mjallby AIF43%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Kalmar FF29%

1.23 expected goals for Mjallby AIF

0.87 expected goals for Kalmar FF

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Mjallby AIF has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Kalmar FF win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Mjallby AIF defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Kalmar FF defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Mjallby AIF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Mjallby AIF attack−5%
  3. Kalmar FF defence−15%

Expected goals1.23

Kalmar FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kalmar FF attack−14%
  2. Mjallby AIF defence−25%

Expected goals0.87

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.7 for Mjallby AIF and 4.4 for Kalmar FF

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.6 for Mjallby AIF and 2.1 for Kalmar FF

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

26.2 expected

14.4 for Mjallby AIF and 11.8 for Kalmar FF

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

27.4 expected

12.9 for Mjallby AIF and 14.4 for Kalmar FF

  1. Over 20.5 fouls89%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls80%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls68%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.