Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

  1. Malmo FF27%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Hammarby FF47%

0.93 expected goals for Malmo FF

1.40 expected goals for Hammarby FF

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Hammarby FF has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Malmo FF win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Hammarby FF defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Hammarby FF attack, which scores 56% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Malmo FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Malmo FF attack+27%
  3. Hammarby FF defence−51%

Expected goals0.93

Hammarby FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hammarby FF attack+56%
  2. Malmo FF defence−34%

Expected goals1.40

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.3 for Malmo FF and 4.8 for Hammarby FF

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Malmo FF and 2.3 for Hammarby FF

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

27.5 expected

14.3 for Malmo FF and 13.2 for Hammarby FF

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.5 for Malmo FF and 12.8 for Hammarby FF

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.