Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg

  1. BK Hacken50%
  2. Draw25%
  3. IFK Goteborg25%

1.71 expected goals for BK Hacken

1.04 expected goals for IFK Goteborg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

BK Hacken has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a IFK Goteborg win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the BK Hacken defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the BK Hacken attack, which scores 49% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

BK Hacken

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. BK Hacken attack+49%
  3. IFK Goteborg defence−24%

Expected goals1.71

IFK Goteborg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. IFK Goteborg attack+24%
  2. BK Hacken defence−38%

Expected goals1.04

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.9 expected

5.9 for BK Hacken and 5.0 for IFK Goteborg

  1. Over 8.5 corners70%
  2. Over 9.5 corners60%
  3. Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for BK Hacken and 2.2 for IFK Goteborg

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

27.5 expected

16.8 for BK Hacken and 10.7 for IFK Goteborg

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

23.8 expected

10.3 for BK Hacken and 13.5 for IFK Goteborg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.