Gais vs AIK Stockholm
- Gais42%
- Draw25%
- AIK Stockholm33%
1.53 expected goals for Gais
1.22 expected goals for AIK Stockholm
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Gais has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a AIK Stockholm win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Gais defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the AIK Stockholm attack, which scores 49% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.8 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Gais
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Gais attack+12%
- AIK Stockholm defence−9%
Expected goals1.53
AIK Stockholm
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- AIK Stockholm attack+49%
- Gais defence−40%
Expected goals1.22
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Over 3.5 goals30%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score53%
- Gais or draw67%
- Draw or AIK Stockholm58%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.8 expected
5.3 for Gais and 4.5 for AIK Stockholm
- Over 8.5 corners60%
- Over 9.5 corners50%
- Over 10.5 corners40%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.9 for Gais and 2.1 for AIK Stockholm
- Over 3.5 cards57%
- Over 4.5 cards37%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
29.6 expected
16.2 for Gais and 13.4 for AIK Stockholm
- Over 20.5 shots89%
- Over 22.5 shots82%
- Over 24.5 shots73%
Fouls
25.0 expected
12.9 for Gais and 12.2 for AIK Stockholm
- Over 20.5 fouls79%
- Over 22.5 fouls67%
- Over 24.5 fouls52%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.