Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin

  1. Tigre46%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Sarmiento Junin24%

1.36 expected goals for Tigre

0.92 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Tigre has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Sarmiento Junin win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tigre defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Sarmiento Junin defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Tigre

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Tigre attack+8%
  3. Sarmiento Junin defence−17%

Expected goals1.36

Sarmiento Junin

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sarmiento Junin attack+8%
  2. Tigre defence−38%

Expected goals0.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

6.2 for Tigre and 3.7 for Sarmiento Junin

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Tigre and 2.6 for Sarmiento Junin

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

27.6 expected

17.3 for Tigre and 10.3 for Sarmiento Junin

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

24.8 expected

10.3 for Tigre and 14.4 for Sarmiento Junin

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.