Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

San Lorenzo vs Platense

  1. San Lorenzo39%
  2. Draw35%
  3. Platense26%

0.85 expected goals for San Lorenzo

0.73 expected goals for Platense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the San Lorenzo defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Platense defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 29% chance, and both teams scoring, 40%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

San Lorenzo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. San Lorenzo attack−14%
  3. Platense defence−35%

Expected goals0.85

Platense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Platense attack0%
  2. San Lorenzo defence−46%

Expected goals0.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals79%
  2. Over 1.5 goals47%
  3. Over 2.5 goals29%
  4. Over 3.5 goals8%
  5. Over 4.5 goals2%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.0 for San Lorenzo and 5.1 for Platense

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for San Lorenzo and 2.5 for Platense

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

25.4 expected

12.5 for San Lorenzo and 12.9 for Platense

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

23.5 expected

11.8 for San Lorenzo and 11.8 for Platense

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.