Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Aldosivi vs River Plate

  1. Aldosivi25%
  2. Draw27%
  3. River Plate48%

0.66 expected goals for Aldosivi

1.73 expected goals for River Plate

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

River Plate has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Aldosivi win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the River Plate defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the River Plate attack, which scores 40% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 43%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Aldosivi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Aldosivi attack−12%
  3. River Plate defence−50%

Expected goals0.66

River Plate

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. River Plate attack+40%
  2. Aldosivi defence−9%

Expected goals1.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals40%
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.6 for Aldosivi and 5.2 for River Plate

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.2 for Aldosivi and 2.1 for River Plate

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

27.5 expected

11.1 for Aldosivi and 16.4 for River Plate

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

25.6 expected

14.0 for Aldosivi and 11.6 for River Plate

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.