Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo

  1. Velez Sarsfield46%
  2. Draw33%
  3. San Lorenzo21%

1.13 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield

0.61 expected goals for San Lorenzo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Velez Sarsfield has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 33% and a San Lorenzo win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the San Lorenzo defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Velez Sarsfield defence, which lets in 45% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 31% chance, and both teams scoring, 41%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Velez Sarsfield

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Velez Sarsfield attack+43%
  3. San Lorenzo defence−48%

Expected goals1.13

San Lorenzo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. San Lorenzo attack−18%
  2. Velez Sarsfield defence−45%

Expected goals0.61

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals82%
  2. Over 1.5 goals52%
  3. Over 2.5 goals31%
  4. Over 3.5 goals10%
  5. Over 4.5 goals3%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.7 for Velez Sarsfield and 4.3 for San Lorenzo

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.1 for Velez Sarsfield and 2.5 for San Lorenzo

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

26.3 expected

15.2 for Velez Sarsfield and 11.0 for San Lorenzo

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

23.7 expected

11.9 for Velez Sarsfield and 11.8 for San Lorenzo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls57%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.