Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central

  1. Sarmiento Junin27%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Rosario Central45%

0.78 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin

1.67 expected goals for Rosario Central

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Rosario Central has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Sarmiento Junin win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rosario Central defence, which lets in 52% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Rosario Central attack, which scores 49% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sarmiento Junin

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sarmiento Junin attack+7%
  3. Rosario Central defence−52%

Expected goals0.78

Rosario Central

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Rosario Central attack+49%
  2. Sarmiento Junin defence−18%

Expected goals1.67

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.0 for Sarmiento Junin and 4.9 for Rosario Central

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.4 for Sarmiento Junin and 2.2 for Rosario Central

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

26.9 expected

12.5 for Sarmiento Junin and 14.4 for Rosario Central

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

23.9 expected

13.2 for Sarmiento Junin and 10.7 for Rosario Central

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.