Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Racing Club vs Aldosivi

  1. Racing Club52%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Aldosivi20%

1.66 expected goals for Racing Club

0.83 expected goals for Aldosivi

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Racing Club has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Aldosivi win at 20%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Racing Club defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Racing Club attack, which scores 22% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Racing Club

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Racing Club attack+22%
  3. Aldosivi defence−10%

Expected goals1.66

Aldosivi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Aldosivi attack−13%
  2. Racing Club defence−30%

Expected goals0.83

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.6 for Racing Club and 4.2 for Aldosivi

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Racing Club and 2.6 for Aldosivi

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

25.9 expected

15.3 for Racing Club and 10.7 for Aldosivi

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

24.5 expected

12.2 for Racing Club and 12.3 for Aldosivi

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.