Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Platense vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

  1. Platense47%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Central Cordoba de Santiago23%

1.38 expected goals for Platense

0.86 expected goals for Central Cordoba de Santiago

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Platense has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Central Cordoba de Santiago win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Platense defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Platense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Platense attack−3%
  3. Central Cordoba de Santiago defence−6%

Expected goals1.38

Central Cordoba de Santiago

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Central Cordoba de Santiago attack−6%
  2. Platense defence−33%

Expected goals0.86

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals66%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.7 for Platense and 4.3 for Central Cordoba de Santiago

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Platense and 2.4 for Central Cordoba de Santiago

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

26.9 expected

16.5 for Platense and 10.4 for Central Cordoba de Santiago

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

22.2 expected

11.4 for Platense and 10.8 for Central Cordoba de Santiago

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.