Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Lanus vs Gimnasia M.

  1. Lanus49%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Gimnasia M.21%

1.39 expected goals for Lanus

0.73 expected goals for Gimnasia M.

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Lanus has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Gimnasia M. win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lanus defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Gimnasia M. defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 37% chance, and both teams scoring, 43%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lanus

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lanus attack+15%
  3. Gimnasia M. defence−20%

Expected goals1.39

Gimnasia M.

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gimnasia M. attack+1%
  2. Lanus defence−47%

Expected goals0.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals37%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.3 for Lanus and 4.5 for Gimnasia M.

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Lanus and 2.4 for Gimnasia M.

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

25.8 expected

13.8 for Lanus and 12.1 for Gimnasia M.

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

23.8 expected

11.5 for Lanus and 12.3 for Gimnasia M.

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.