Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Huracan vs Tigre

  1. Huracan39%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Tigre28%

0.95 expected goals for Huracan

0.85 expected goals for Tigre

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Huracan defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Tigre defence, which lets in 36% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 32% chance, and both teams scoring, 42%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Huracan

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Huracan attack−2%
  3. Tigre defence−36%

Expected goals0.95

Tigre

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tigre attack+4%
  2. Huracan defence−40%

Expected goals0.85

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals83%
  2. Over 1.5 goals55%
  3. Over 2.5 goals32%
  4. Over 3.5 goals11%
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.0 for Huracan and 4.5 for Tigre

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.1 for Huracan and 2.5 for Tigre

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

26.5 expected

14.1 for Huracan and 12.4 for Tigre

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

22.4 expected

11.7 for Huracan and 10.7 for Tigre

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.