Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Estudiantes L.P. vs Instituto Cordoba

  1. Estudiantes L.P.43%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Instituto Cordoba25%

1.17 expected goals for Estudiantes L.P.

0.88 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Estudiantes L.P. has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Instituto Cordoba win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Estudiantes L.P. defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Instituto Cordoba defence, which lets in 39% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 36% chance, and both teams scoring, 43%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Estudiantes L.P.

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Estudiantes L.P. attack+27%
  3. Instituto Cordoba defence−39%

Expected goals1.17

Instituto Cordoba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Instituto Cordoba attack+32%
  2. Estudiantes L.P. defence−51%

Expected goals0.88

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%
  3. Over 2.5 goals36%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

4.9 for Estudiantes L.P. and 4.5 for Instituto Cordoba

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.1 for Estudiantes L.P. and 2.5 for Instituto Cordoba

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

24.9 expected

13.6 for Estudiantes L.P. and 11.3 for Instituto Cordoba

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots61%
  3. Over 24.5 shots49%

Fouls

25.0 expected

12.3 for Estudiantes L.P. and 12.7 for Instituto Cordoba

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.