Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Deportivo Riestra vs Talleres Cordoba

  1. Deportivo Riestra37%
  2. Draw35%
  3. Talleres Cordoba28%

0.82 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra

0.81 expected goals for Talleres Cordoba

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Deportivo Riestra defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Deportivo Riestra attack, which scores 27% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 29% chance, and both teams scoring, 41%. And about 8.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Deportivo Riestra

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Deportivo Riestra attack−27%
  3. Talleres Cordoba defence−26%

Expected goals0.82

Talleres Cordoba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Talleres Cordoba attack−7%
  2. Deportivo Riestra defence−37%

Expected goals0.81

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals80%
  2. Over 1.5 goals49%
  3. Over 2.5 goals29%
  4. Over 3.5 goals8%
  5. Over 4.5 goals3%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.7 expected

4.6 for Deportivo Riestra and 4.0 for Talleres Cordoba

  1. Over 8.5 corners48%
  2. Over 9.5 corners37%
  3. Over 10.5 corners28%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Deportivo Riestra and 2.3 for Talleres Cordoba

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.6 expected

14.2 for Deportivo Riestra and 11.3 for Talleres Cordoba

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

23.6 expected

11.7 for Deportivo Riestra and 11.8 for Talleres Cordoba

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.