Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Boca Juniors vs River Plate

  1. Boca Juniors45%
  2. Draw30%
  3. River Plate25%

1.34 expected goals for Boca Juniors

0.94 expected goals for River Plate

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Boca Juniors has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a River Plate win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Boca Juniors defence, which lets in 52% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the River Plate defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Boca Juniors

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Boca Juniors attack+77%
  3. River Plate defence−50%

Expected goals1.34

River Plate

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. River Plate attack+45%
  2. Boca Juniors defence−52%

Expected goals0.94

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

4.7 for Boca Juniors and 4.4 for River Plate

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Boca Juniors and 2.2 for River Plate

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

25.1 expected

12.5 for Boca Juniors and 12.6 for River Plate

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

22.4 expected

11.1 for Boca Juniors and 11.3 for River Plate

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.