Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Belgrano Cordoba vs Barracas Central

  1. Belgrano Cordoba43%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Barracas Central24%

1.07 expected goals for Belgrano Cordoba

0.73 expected goals for Barracas Central

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Belgrano Cordoba has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 33% and a Barracas Central win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Belgrano Cordoba defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Barracas Central defence, which lets in 36% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 32% chance, and both teams scoring, 42%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Belgrano Cordoba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Belgrano Cordoba attack+11%
  3. Barracas Central defence−36%

Expected goals1.07

Barracas Central

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Barracas Central attack−5%
  2. Belgrano Cordoba defence−44%

Expected goals0.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals83%
  2. Over 1.5 goals54%
  3. Over 2.5 goals32%
  4. Over 3.5 goals11%
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.0 for Belgrano Cordoba and 4.4 for Barracas Central

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Belgrano Cordoba and 2.4 for Barracas Central

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

24.0 expected

13.2 for Belgrano Cordoba and 10.8 for Barracas Central

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots44%

Fouls

24.2 expected

12.4 for Belgrano Cordoba and 11.7 for Barracas Central

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.