Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Independiente0-1Boca Juniors

The model's most likely result happened: a Boca Juniors win (43%).

Independiente vs Boca Juniors

  1. Independiente29%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Boca Juniors43%

0.90 expected goals for Independiente

1.72 expected goals for Boca Juniors

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Boca Juniors has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Independiente win at 29%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

4.4 for Independiente and 4.7 for Boca Juniors

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.3 for Independiente and 2.1 for Boca Juniors

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

26.6 expected

12.5 for Independiente and 14.2 for Boca Juniors

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

21.9 expected

11.4 for Independiente and 10.5 for Boca Juniors

  1. Over 20.5 fouls60%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls44%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.