Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians

  1. Sao Paulo46%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Corinthians25%

1.21 expected goals for Sao Paulo

0.95 expected goals for Corinthians

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Sao Paulo has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Corinthians win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sao Paulo defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Corinthians defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sao Paulo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sao Paulo attack+36%
  3. Corinthians defence−41%

Expected goals1.21

Corinthians

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Corinthians attack+32%
  2. Sao Paulo defence−47%

Expected goals0.95

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.0 for Sao Paulo and 5.0 for Corinthians

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.1 for Sao Paulo and 2.7 for Corinthians

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

29.6 expected

15.7 for Sao Paulo and 13.9 for Corinthians

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

27.8 expected

15.1 for Sao Paulo and 12.7 for Corinthians

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls82%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls70%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.