Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Palmeiras vs Remo

  1. Palmeiras63%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Remo12%

1.66 expected goals for Palmeiras

0.62 expected goals for Remo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Palmeiras the clear favourite: 63% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Palmeiras defence, which lets in 65% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Palmeiras attack, which scores 79% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Palmeiras

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Palmeiras attack+79%
  3. Remo defence−39%

Expected goals1.66

Remo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Remo attack+30%
  2. Palmeiras defence−65%

Expected goals0.62

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

4.9 for Palmeiras and 5.7 for Remo

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for Palmeiras and 2.4 for Remo

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

26.8 expected

15.3 for Palmeiras and 11.4 for Remo

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

24.2 expected

12.7 for Palmeiras and 11.5 for Remo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.