Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Internacional vs Coritiba

  1. Internacional52%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Coritiba22%

1.58 expected goals for Internacional

1.08 expected goals for Coritiba

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Internacional has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Coritiba win at 22%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Internacional defence, which lets in 36% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Internacional attack, which scores 48% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Internacional

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Internacional attack+48%
  3. Coritiba defence−29%

Expected goals1.59

Coritiba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Coritiba attack+24%
  2. Internacional defence−36%

Expected goals1.08

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

6.1 for Internacional and 4.7 for Coritiba

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Internacional and 2.4 for Coritiba

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

30.8 expected

19.6 for Internacional and 11.2 for Coritiba

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots77%

Fouls

26.1 expected

14.2 for Internacional and 11.9 for Coritiba

  1. Over 20.5 fouls84%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls73%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls60%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.