Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Cruzeiro vs Bahia

  1. Cruzeiro56%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Bahia20%

1.91 expected goals for Cruzeiro

1.18 expected goals for Bahia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Cruzeiro the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cruzeiro attack, which scores 100% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Cruzeiro defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 11.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cruzeiro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cruzeiro attack+100%
  3. Bahia defence−37%

Expected goals1.91

Bahia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Bahia attack+69%
  2. Cruzeiro defence−48%

Expected goals1.18

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.7 expected

6.7 for Cruzeiro and 5.0 for Bahia

  1. Over 8.5 corners75%
  2. Over 9.5 corners67%
  3. Over 10.5 corners58%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Cruzeiro and 2.4 for Bahia

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

31.0 expected

18.5 for Cruzeiro and 12.6 for Bahia

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

26.9 expected

12.4 for Cruzeiro and 14.5 for Bahia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls87%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls77%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls65%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.