Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol

  1. Chapecoense-sc30%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Mirassol43%

0.98 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc

1.64 expected goals for Mirassol

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Mirassol has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Chapecoense-sc win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Mirassol defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Mirassol attack, which scores 36% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Chapecoense-sc

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Chapecoense-sc attack+16%
  3. Mirassol defence−44%

Expected goals0.98

Mirassol

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Mirassol attack+36%
  2. Chapecoense-sc defence−12%

Expected goals1.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.4 for Chapecoense-sc and 4.5 for Mirassol

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for Chapecoense-sc and 2.3 for Mirassol

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

29.2 expected

14.5 for Chapecoense-sc and 14.7 for Mirassol

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

23.6 expected

12.4 for Chapecoense-sc and 11.2 for Mirassol

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls57%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.