Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

RB Bragantino vs Santos

  1. RB Bragantino42%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Santos31%

1.32 expected goals for RB Bragantino

1.31 expected goals for Santos

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

RB Bragantino has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Santos win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the RB Bragantino defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Santos defence, which lets in 45% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 11.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

RB Bragantino

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. RB Bragantino attack+60%
  3. Santos defence−45%

Expected goals1.32

Santos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Santos attack+78%
  2. RB Bragantino defence−46%

Expected goals1.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.6 expected

6.4 for RB Bragantino and 5.2 for Santos

  1. Over 8.5 corners75%
  2. Over 9.5 corners66%
  3. Over 10.5 corners57%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.1 for RB Bragantino and 2.7 for Santos

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

31.8 expected

17.4 for RB Bragantino and 14.5 for Santos

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

24.8 expected

13.1 for RB Bragantino and 11.7 for Santos

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.