Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama

  1. Atletico Paranaense41%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Vasco DA Gama32%

1.37 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense

1.44 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Atletico Paranaense has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Vasco DA Gama win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Vasco DA Gama defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Atletico Paranaense attack, which scores 68% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atletico Paranaense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atletico Paranaense attack+68%
  3. Vasco DA Gama defence−46%

Expected goals1.37

Vasco DA Gama

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Vasco DA Gama attack+67%
  2. Atletico Paranaense defence−37%

Expected goals1.44

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.4 for Atletico Paranaense and 3.8 for Vasco DA Gama

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Atletico Paranaense and 2.1 for Vasco DA Gama

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

27.4 expected

15.7 for Atletico Paranaense and 11.8 for Vasco DA Gama

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

23.8 expected

11.8 for Atletico Paranaense and 11.9 for Vasco DA Gama

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.