Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Wednesday 28 October, 16:00

Final score

Fluminense2-1Internacional

The model's most likely result happened: a Fluminense win (51%).

Fluminense vs Internacional

  1. Fluminense51%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Internacional22%

1.53 expected goals for Fluminense

1.06 expected goals for Internacional

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Fluminense has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Internacional win at 22%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 8.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.3 for Fluminense and 3.5 for Internacional

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

4.7 expected

1.9 for Fluminense and 2.8 for Internacional

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

25.3 expected

14.8 for Fluminense and 10.5 for Internacional

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

27.9 expected

13.0 for Fluminense and 14.9 for Internacional

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls82%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls71%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.