Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Vitoria1-1Atletico Paranaense

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a Atletico Paranaense win (37%).

Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense

  1. Vitoria36%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Atletico Paranaense37%

1.25 expected goals for Vitoria

1.58 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.4 for Vitoria and 4.7 for Atletico Paranaense

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.0 for Vitoria and 2.8 for Atletico Paranaense

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards52%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

31.8 expected

17.2 for Vitoria and 14.6 for Atletico Paranaense

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

27.0 expected

12.5 for Vitoria and 14.5 for Atletico Paranaense

  1. Over 20.5 fouls87%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls78%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls65%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.