Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Vasco DA Gama3-2Corinthians

The model's most likely result happened: a Vasco DA Gama win (52%).

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians

  1. Vasco DA Gama52%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Corinthians20%

1.38 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama

0.83 expected goals for Corinthians

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Vasco DA Gama has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Corinthians win at 20%. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 11.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.2 expected

6.6 for Vasco DA Gama and 4.7 for Corinthians

  1. Over 8.5 corners72%
  2. Over 9.5 corners63%
  3. Over 10.5 corners53%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Vasco DA Gama and 2.5 for Corinthians

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

29.0 expected

18.6 for Vasco DA Gama and 10.4 for Corinthians

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

26.6 expected

15.0 for Vasco DA Gama and 11.6 for Corinthians

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls76%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls63%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.