Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Mirassol1-1Sao Paulo

The model gave this result 30%. Its most likely result was a Mirassol win (43%).

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo

  1. Mirassol43%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Sao Paulo27%

1.08 expected goals for Mirassol

0.97 expected goals for Sao Paulo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Mirassol has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Sao Paulo win at 27%. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.4 for Mirassol and 4.8 for Sao Paulo

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.5 for Mirassol and 2.3 for Sao Paulo

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

29.1 expected

15.6 for Mirassol and 13.6 for Sao Paulo

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

25.3 expected

12.7 for Mirassol and 12.6 for Sao Paulo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.