Sunday 25 October, 16:00
Final score
Cruzeiro1-0Remo
The model's most likely result happened: a Cruzeiro win (62%).
Cruzeiro vs Remo
- Cruzeiro62%
- Draw22%
- Remo16%
2.02 expected goals for Cruzeiro
1.00 expected goals for Remo
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Cruzeiro the clear favourite: 62% to win. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 11.2 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals81%It did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals50%It did not happen
- Over 3.5 goals36%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals19%It did not happen
- Both teams score52%
- Cruzeiro or draw84%
- Draw or Remo38%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.2 expected
5.7 for Cruzeiro and 5.5 for Remo
- Over 8.5 corners72%
- Over 9.5 corners62%
- Over 10.5 corners53%
Cards
4.1 expected
2.1 for Cruzeiro and 2.1 for Remo
- Over 3.5 cards59%
- Over 4.5 cards40%
- Over 5.5 cards24%
Shots
33.2 expected
18.8 for Cruzeiro and 14.3 for Remo
- Over 20.5 shots95%
- Over 22.5 shots91%
- Over 24.5 shots85%
Fouls
26.7 expected
13.7 for Cruzeiro and 13.0 for Remo
- Over 20.5 fouls86%
- Over 22.5 fouls76%
- Over 24.5 fouls64%
Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.