Sunday 25 October, 16:00
Final score
Coritiba0-1Gremio
The model gave this result 36%. Its most likely result was a Coritiba win (36%).
Coritiba vs Gremio
- Coritiba36%
- Draw28%
- Gremio36%
1.12 expected goals for Coritiba
1.42 expected goals for Gremio
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
A very open match: no result goes above 36%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.2 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals73%It did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals47%It did not happen
- Over 3.5 goals25%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals11%It did not happen
- Both teams score51%
- Coritiba or draw64%
- Draw or Gremio64%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
5.9 for Coritiba and 4.4 for Gremio
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners54%
- Over 10.5 corners44%
Cards
5.2 expected
2.4 for Coritiba and 2.9 for Gremio
- Over 3.5 cards76%
- Over 4.5 cards60%
- Over 5.5 cards42%
Shots
32.3 expected
17.8 for Coritiba and 14.5 for Gremio
- Over 20.5 shots94%
- Over 22.5 shots89%
- Over 24.5 shots83%
Fouls
26.7 expected
13.4 for Coritiba and 13.3 for Gremio
- Over 20.5 fouls87%
- Over 22.5 fouls77%
- Over 24.5 fouls64%
Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.