Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo

  1. Portland Timbers45%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Houston Dynamo28%

1.46 expected goals for Portland Timbers

1.29 expected goals for Houston Dynamo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Portland Timbers has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Houston Dynamo win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Houston Dynamo defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Portland Timbers attack, which scores 30% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Portland Timbers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Portland Timbers attack+30%
  3. Houston Dynamo defence−26%

Expected goals1.46

Houston Dynamo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Houston Dynamo attack−14%
  2. Portland Timbers defence+10%

Expected goals1.29

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.5 for Portland Timbers and 4.2 for Houston Dynamo

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Portland Timbers and 2.4 for Houston Dynamo

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.3 expected

15.7 for Portland Timbers and 10.6 for Houston Dynamo

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

24.1 expected

13.2 for Portland Timbers and 10.9 for Houston Dynamo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.