Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

New England Revolution vs Inter Miami

  1. New England Revolution43%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Inter Miami33%

1.88 expected goals for New England Revolution

1.93 expected goals for Inter Miami

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

New England Revolution has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Inter Miami win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Inter Miami attack, which scores 55% more goals than an average team. Next comes the New England Revolution attack, which scores 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 69%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

New England Revolution

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. New England Revolution attack+21%
  3. Inter Miami defence+3%

Expected goals1.88

Inter Miami

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Inter Miami attack+55%
  2. New England Revolution defence−9%

Expected goals1.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals67%
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%
  5. Over 4.5 goals33%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.5 for New England Revolution and 4.2 for Inter Miami

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for New England Revolution and 2.4 for Inter Miami

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

27.0 expected

15.1 for New England Revolution and 11.9 for Inter Miami

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

22.5 expected

10.1 for New England Revolution and 12.4 for Inter Miami

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.